New trading dimensions بیل ویلیامز:

*Any unfriendliness always comes from us, not from the market. We often hear phrases like "The market stopped me out." The market never in all its history stopped any trader out. We all do it to ourselves. Win or lose, it is always our own fault. That is because no one trades the  market; we all trade our own personal belief system.

*We make lists of our goals, plan them out, and then neglect the present and live, in our head, in the future. The problem with living in the land of goals rather than the land of now is that when we center our attention on the future, we cannot concentrate on or even accurately observe what is happening now….Pay attention to process rather than future goals or desires.

*Our actions are not based on grounded assessments but on our history (belief system) with that particular concept. It is said that generals always fight the previous war rather than the one they are in. We traders generally trade our last mistake rather than what is happening in the current market. In other words, we set up our own prejudices based on past experiences, and any incoming information will be filtered to make sure that it does not contradict our belief systems. If reality does conflict with our belief systems, we will deny reality and distort incoming information to keep our unquestioned beliefs intact. Pag 6-7

*It is also interesting to note that all the subatomic particles that have been discovered were named long before they were discovered. The old questions return: Do we believe what we see? Or, do we see what we believe? Aristotelian philosophy has influenced our legal system (precedence), our educational system (the teacher-student relationship: the student is dumb and the teacher is smart), medicine (double-blind studies), and science (reliability and validity). Following this path of reductionism has produced the concepts of cause and effect, "laws" of motion, "conservation" of energy, and entropy. The latest findings of modern science have proven all of these assumptions and concepts false. Aristotle's philosophical counterpart, Heraclitus, felt that the universe was in constant flux, and stability and homeostasis were not the norm. Probably his most famous saying was: "You can't step in the same river twice," meaning that when you put your foot in and take it out and immediately place it back into the water, not only has the river changed, your foot has changed also. Heraclitus's most famous student, Clayitus, went even further. He said: "You can't step in the same river once": you and the river are changing during the process of putting your foot in.page12-13

*A number of things apparently traveled much faster than the speed of light. In fact, there was evidence that some things travel so incredibly fast that they could be in two places at once. That was not supposed to happen, according to classical science. In 1964, John Stuart Bell, a brilliant scientist, introduced a notion he called the nonlocality of causes. This cast doubt on the entire theory of cause and effect. Bell said individual causes could not be isolated. This is quite a serious concept. Most of us tend to run our lives and our trading with cause-and-effect assumptions such as "Why did I catch that cold?" or, more particularly, "Why did I lose on that trade?" If, as Bell maintains, this is not the way the world really works, we might have our ladder of learning leaning against the wrong building. Thousands of experiments offer positive proof that Bell's theorem is indeed a more accurate description of how things really work. Bell maintains that everything in the universe is connected. You are a part of me and vice versa; whereas Aristotle maintained that everything had its own discrete boundaries and could be located and categorized... Bohm went even further than Bell, maintaining that not only is everything in the Universe connected but everything is actually the same thing. Everything comes from the same shimmering quantum soup.page13-14

*Another scientific breakthrough since the 1950s was the discovery of the hologram. The insight gained here is that information can be stored in ways yet to be discovered, and unbelievably large amounts of information can be stored in extremely tiny spaces. Before you were born, your entire body—including the size of your muscles, the number of hairs on your head, the shape and size of your teeth, the color of your eyes, the number of cells in your brain, how you will age, and, barring accidents, when you will die—were all stored in your RNA/DNA in a space so small it cannot be seen with the naked eye. If you take a holographic 8 x 10-inch film and cut off one corner a slice smaller than l/l6 of an inch, it will still contain the same details as the 8 x 10-inch picture. Information theory, cybernetics, and holographic theory do not support the Aristotelian view of the world. When we say "Our world is changing," what we really mean is that we are getting a different view of it.page 15

*The universally most common and most prejudiced way to handle new information is to fit it into old categories. We have done this so often that we consider it either the natural thing to do or, more commonly, the ONLY way to handle it. Upon receiving new information, our usual first approach is: "What is it like? It reminds me of ...." According to psychologists, any time you feel either overwhelmed or bored it is because you are attempting to fit new information into old categories. (Aha! What are you doing with this information at this moment?) Think about that when you are in the market and feeling either bored or overwhelmed. Our first impulse when handling new incoming information is to organize it in some way. You are in the process of organizing this material that you are reading. Once anything, material or otherwise, is organized, it takes on a life of its own. When it takes on this life, its primary purpose and goal is survival...The real reason that most traders lose consistently is that they are fitting new information into old, inappropriate categories. If our usual way of handling new information is to fit it into old categories…page21

* The simplest organization I can think of is a hydrogen atom. It contains one proton made up of three quarks and one electron. It just doesn't get much simpler than that. Trillions of these gaseous atoms are floating around in the air in the room where you are sitting. Their first instinct, just like yours and mine, is to keep their current logic organization intact. They seek to remain hydrogen atoms. In this room, there are also trillions of oxygen atoms. They are much larger and more complex, and they, too, seek to keep their current organization intact. As both of these gases circulate and bounce around the room, they occasionally will come into each other's gravitational field . This provides new information for both of them (the gravitational pull of the other). And even though they are infinitesimally small and are inorganic, they make what could only be called an intelligent choice—whether to keep their old organization as independent atoms or to permit the new incoming information to change their organizational structure. They keep their current structure 99.99999 percent of the time. About 0.00001 percent of the time, they let this new information (the gravitational pull of the other atom) reorganize their approach to the world. When that happens, these atoms TRANCE-END their old limitations and become something entirely new, with all new characteristics and a totally different organization. They have become H20— water. -\7Vater has virtually no characteristics that are shared by the two former gases. They were compressible, light as air, invisible to humans and so on. Water is not compressible, is heavier than air, is visible, and exists in different states (solid, liquid, gas). The point here is that there are only two ways of dealing with new information: 1. Massage (distort) it so that it will fit into an old organization. 2. Permit the new incoming information to organize itself into a new, different, and unpredictable organization. Figure 2-1 How do you handle new information (Chaos)? Therein lies the difference between a successful approach to trading and the more common losing approach. Traders who let the new incoming information organize their trading will be in sync with the market and thereby will be winners. Attempting to fit new incoming information (Chaos) into old categories distorts both the information and the trading.page21-22

*We are jolted back to the Aristotelian statement that something cannot be both A and not A. Chaos theory, like quantum science, takes issue with Aristotle, and many experiments show that some things both are and are not at the same time. It is almost a kind of mysticism if we follow the old Aristotelian logic.page23

*With the markets' ever-changing personality, our best hope is to learn how to learn… That's why we will never be bored with the markets and there will always be more to know.page 32

 

ترجمه پشوتن مشهوری نژاد ازکتاب بیل ویلیامز:

*با هر كدام از كساني كه مي شناسيد كه مدتي در بازار سرمايه معامله مي كرده و سپس به دلايلي از آن خارج شده است، تماسبگيريد.معمولاً اين افراد نتوانسته اند نهايتاً در اين بازار موفق شوند. از ايشان بپرسيد كه چرا از بازار خارج شده است؟ چه چيزي باعث شده كه به سودآوري در اين ماركت نرسند؟ من ميدانم كه او چه پاسخي به شما خواهد داد:"من نتوانستم سود كنم چون من نميتوانستم بازار را پيش بینی کنم".يك چيزي را ميدانيد؟ هيچ كس نميتواند!! هيچ كس در كل دنيا نمي داند لحظه اي ديگر قيمت ها به كدام سمت خواهند رفت! اگر تو فكر ميكني ميتواني بياموزي كه چگونه آينده بازار را واقعاً پيش بيني كني، تو خودت را از جمع ده درصدي كساني كه در اين بازار موفق هستند خارج نموده اي!

*لوئيس – اف- ريچاردسون دانشمند انگليسي، اولين شخصي بود كه مساله محاسبه طول خط ساحلي يا هر مرز بين المللي را ( mandelbrot) بررسي نمود. اين مساله بعداً توسط مندلبروت حل شد. در نگاه اول اين مشكل احمقانه به نظر مي رسد، ولي اين مشكل توجه خاصي را بر امكان ماندگاري اندازه گيري اقليدسي، براي دسته ي بخصوصي از اشياء و بازار، تقويت مي كند. تصور كنيد كه شما به كار اندازه گيري خط ساحلي فلوريدا گماشته شده ايد. رئيس شما انتظار يك اندازه گيري دقيق دارد و يك ميله ي ده فوتي در اختيار شما قرار مي دهد. شما شروع به حركت پيرامون شبه جزيره مي كنيد. شما كار خود را به پايان مي رسانيد و جواب خود رامحاسبه مي كنيد. سپس رئيس شما فكر مي كند كه يك ميله ده فوتي چندان دقيق نيست و باعث از دست دادن جزئيات اندازه گيري مي شود. بنابراين به شما يك وسيله اندازه گيري در مقياس يارد مي دهد و از شما مي خواهدكه اندازه گيري را تكرار كنيد و شما انجام مي دهيد ولذا باتعداد اندازه گيري هاي بيشتري مواجه مي شويد.استفاده از يك خط كش يك فوتي به اندازه گيري هاي بيشتري براي محاسبه خط ساحلي منجر مي شود. و اگر شما يك خط كش يك اينچي بكار ببريد، به شرطي كه هنوز سلامت عقل خود را از دست نداده باشيد (!!) جواب شما به سمت بينهايت ميل خواهد كرد. استفاده از ابزارهاي كوچك تر اندازه گيري باعث مي شود كه جزئيات بيشتري را بدست آوريد. يك خط ساحلي نمايانگر يك گروه از اشياء كه داراي يك طول نامحدود در فضايي محدود است، مي باشد. طول يك خط ساحلي يك كميت قابل اندازه گيري در رويكرد اقليدسي نيست. اگر فلوريدا يك شكل هموار و بدون چين و چروك داشت، جواب ثابتي براي طول آن وجود داشت. ولي در واقع كليه اشياء طبيعي داراي شكلهاي نا منظم هستند. لذا مقادير اندازه گيري مطلق را به مبارزه مي طلبند.

*انرژي همواره مسيري راطي مي كند،كه كمترين مقاومت برسرراه آن وجودداشته باشد. يك بازارسهام شبيه رودخانه است.

دردقايق مختلف معامله وحركت بازار،قيمت همواره مسيري را انتخاب مي نمايدكه درآن باكمترين مقاومت روبرو باشد.اين كاري است كه همه ماانجام مي دهيم نه فقط بازار. اين بخشي از طراحي ذاتي و ماهيت دروني طبيعت است.زماني كه يك رودخانه از ارتفاعي به سمت پايينجريان مي يابد، رفتار آن توسط مسيري با كمترينمقاومت مشخص مي گردد. جاذبه به آن انرژي ميدهد تا با عبور از اطراف سنگها در مسيري منحني شكل در بستر خود جاري گردد. اگر شما اكنون در حال خواندن اين جملات هستيد، اين هم انتخابي از مسير با حداقل مقاومت بوده است! زيرا كه شما قاعدتاً پس از آزمودن فاكتورهاي گوناگون در مديريت زمان، نشستن پاي اين كتاب ومطالعه اين متون را بدليل طي نمودن مسيري با كمترين مقاومت، انتخاب كرده ايد.اگر شما در جاي خاصي مي نشينيد به اين علت است كه آنجا مكاني با كمترين مقاومت براي شما قرارداشته است. (مثلا مي توانستيد به جاي مبل، بر روي ميخ بنشينيد!!)

*در جايي حماقترا اينگونه تعريف كرده اند: "كاري را به كرات انجام دادن و انتظار نتيجه ي متفاوت داشتن!"اگر مرتب رژيم مي گيريد، اما همچنان چاق هستيد،اگر بارها سيگار را ترك كرده ايد ولي باز هم در حسرت يكنخ سيگار هستيد، اگر نوشيدن (الكل) را كنار گذاشته ايد اما بازهم مي خواهيد بنوشيد، و از همه مهمتر اگر مي خواهيد برندهشويد اما همچنان مي بازيد...

*در مباحث سياسي مشكلاتي مانند كسر بودجه، تورم، بي خانمان ها، ماليات، ،AIDS، مشكلات تحصيلي و... در مركز توجه قرار دارند.بزرگترين رهبران تاريخ كساني نبوده اند كه به حل مشكلات پرداخته باشند بلكه كساني بوده اند كه سازنده و ايجاد كننده بوده اند. حلمسئلهمسلماًدارايجايگاهخاصخودميباشدامامنشاءمؤثريبرايايجادحالاتبرندهدرمعاملاتنيست.... هدف از پزشكي حل مشكلات است نه ايجاد نوعي سلامتي غير عادي. در واقع علم پزشكي روش ايجادسلامتي نيست. قانون در پي حل مشكل جنايت است نه اينكه مجرمان را بحال نخست برگرداند. Carl Jung پس از سالها كار و تلاش در اين زمينه، بيان داشت كه خود مشكلات اغلب چيزهاي نامربوطي هستند. او اين نگاه موشكافانه را اينگونه بيان داشت : "تمام مشكلات بزرگ و اساسي ما در زندگي، اساساً غيرقابل حل هستند.... آنها هرگز حل

نمي شوند بلكه فقط رشد كرده و بزرگتر مي شوند. در تحقيقات بيشتر ثابت شده است كه این{رشد} نياز به سطوح جديدي از هوشياري ها و آگاهي دارد. بعضي از علاقمندي هاي  جديد در افق ديد بيمار پديدار ميشود، و از طريق اين وسعت ديدي كه پيدا كرده اند، مسائل غير قابل حل اولويت خود از دست ميدهند. اين مسائل منطقاً از لحاظ ضوابط خودش حل نميشوند بلكه وقتي با يك ميل جديدتر و قويتر در زندگي مواجه ميشوند، كمرنگ ميگردد.."